Red Sox Offseason: Weird Harold, Bizarro Theo?

I woke up early this morning and caught the replay of MLB Network’s “Hot Stove” program to see if there was any new off-season moves that I didn’t catch earlier in the day. What I got, instead, was Harold Reynolds about 3 days behind in the news cycle. As the other panelists, including Mitch Williams and Matt Vasgersian spoke of the pending John Lackey and Mike Cameron signings by the Red Sox, Reynolds was a little slow in catching up. He wondered aloud where that left Jason Bay in the mix, noting that “the window may be closing for Bay to sign with the Red Sox.”

Ummm…have you been paying attention, Mr. Reynolds? Bay’s agent himself said over the WEEKEND (mind you, this was a Tuesday night broadcast) that Bay was prepared to move on. Toss in an imminent signing for 2 years at $15.5 million to play the same position, and you’re STILL wondering where Bay fits in? It was funny to watch Wild Thing deadpanning his expression in letting Weird Harold (Fat Albert is one of the most underrated cartoons of the 1970s, by the way) know that he probably doesn’t. I won’t speak for anyone but odds are that Mitch was wondering at that exact moment what was in Reynolds’ coffee, and also wondering if he could get some.

The moral of the story: Peter Gammons can’t get to that desk soon enough. I tired of just about everything ESPN over the last few years so I haven’t been able to catch Gammons on TV much at all, so it’ll be good to see him on MLB Network and NESN in the coming months. Sure, he uses his Twitter account to express his political views on an unsolicited basis (@pgammo, I get it. You don’t like Sarah Palin. You live in Massachusetts. That fact alone puts the smart money, sight unseen, on you leaning a little towards the left), but there’s nothing wrong with expressing your opinion. He’ll be a great add to both sets.

Regarding the signings of Cameron and Lackey, as a Sox fan, I don’t really care for them. Unlike many, I am OK with the “bridge year” concept if it involves creating payroll flexibility. A LF manned by a platoon of Jeremy Hermida, Josh Reddick and a non-tender would work fine. Paying almost $8 million/year for TWO years for an aging outfielder seems to be a bit much for the organization. Paying $16.5 million/year for an over-30 pitcher with durability issues and a less-than-stellar record in his new home park seems steep as well. Lackey was the only solid option of the barren free agent starting pitcher class of the 2009-2010 offseason. He was the best house in a bad neighborhood, if you will, and of course he was going to be overpaid. That doesn’t mean Theo Epstein has to be the one overpaying. If I have to guess, this was more Larry Lucchino’s call in a gut reaction to keep pace with The Empire rather than the emergence of Bizarro Theo. I can’t see them keeping Josh Beckett now. Really, I couldn’t see them keeping him before this; the last two years haven’t been stellar for him; he seems to be reverting to fighting himself and trying to Nuke LaLoosh everyone with his heat. That’s not going to work now, and it sure won’t work as age and loss of velocity set in while he toils well into his 30s.

Not sure what’s going on with the Sox tripping over themselves to eat $9 of $12 million for Mike Lowell in 2010. Sure…he was defensively a shell of himself at 3B, displaying range almost as bad as a previous Sox aging infielder (Mark Loretta at 2B c. 2006). He can still hit, though. It’s well-documented that he was annoyed with the ramifications of the Sox pursuit of Mark Teixeira last year. Do his declining range and ill temper over being dangled as bait for 2 years add up to a salary dump? I guess they do. Still, Adrian Beltre is NOT the answer, unless you want to overpay a Scott Boras client for declining production and advanced age, regardless of how solid the glove is, all the while further hampering payroll flexibility. If that’s the case, be my guest…y’all just go on with your bad self. It’s much cheaper to sign a 1B or go with Kotchman and move Kevin Youkilis to 3B than to find a 3B option on the open market. I don’t really like Theo’s track record with free agent signs on the left side of the infield, either. Not since Bill Mueller, anyway.

As for Harold Reynolds, as Marty McFly said in “Back to the Future,” “watch for the changes, and try to keep up, okay?”

Huuuge grains of salt…2009 Cubs = 2001 Red Sox?

When I was a kid I spent a couple of years in the Chicagoland area and the next couple of years in the Boston area. For some reason my borderline-nomadic self has kept the allegiance to both the Cubs and the Red Sox. Because of this sickness, late October 2003 was a wicked crappy time for me…with one exception – I didn’t have to expend too much effort to think up a Halloween costume. I just wore my Red Sox jersey and my Cubs hat and was instantly transformed into the World’s Most Pathetic Baseball Fan.

I had a Tweet the other day noting that this year’s disheveled Cubs squad reminded me a lot of the 2001 Red Sox. You may argue that the 2009 Cubs may have even more potential talent on their roster with their reasonably solid pitching and slightly less dead weight than the likes of the 2001 editions of Mike Lansing and Troy O’Leary. But examine a few ailments befalling both teams and the likeness is uncanny…

Affliction: Malcontent behavior in the dugout
2001 Red Sox: Manny Ramirez slouching during the National Anthem before first game back after September 11 terrorist attacks (note absence of the term "man-made disasters")
2009 Cubs: The Gatorade cooler as endangered species

Affliction: Crotchety episodes from a manager whose act is wearing thin
2001 Red Sox: Jimy Williams' “manager’s decision”
2009 Cubs: Lou Piniella ripping Milton Bradley a new one after yet another meltdown

Affliction: Ace fragile diva extraordinaire
2001 Red Sox: Pedro Martinez
2009 Cubs: Carlos Zambrano

Affliction: OBP nightmares
2001 Red Sox: Troy O’Leary (.298), Mike Lansing (.294), Shea Hillenbrand (.291)
2009 Cubs: Alfonso Soriano (.298), Micah Hoffpauir (.287), Aaron Miles (.240)

Affliction: Heart attack closers
2001 Red Sox: Derek Lowe, Ugueth Urbina
2009 Cubs: Kevin Gregg

Affliction: Big-ticket, overpriced free agents signed in prior years never living up to erroneously high expectations
2001 Red Sox: Jose Offerman
2009 Cubs: Alfonso Soriano

Affliction: Injured catcher
2001 Red Sox: Jason Varitek (broken elbow)
2009 Cubs: Geovany Soto (strained oblique)

Affliction: Coaching staff sacrifices
2001 Red Sox: John Cumberland
2009 Cubs: Gerald Perry

Affliction: Beleaguered GM
2001 Red Sox: Dan Duquette
2009 Cubs: Jim Hendry

Affliction: Old ownership with a callous personality towards its fan base
2001 Red Sox: John Harrington, once dubbed “the world’s luckiest CPA,” CEO of the Yawkey Trust
2009 Cubs: Tribune Company (but as a former public company and LBO gone bad, a sharper eye on the bottom line and maximization of stakeholder return is required)

Affliction: Charming yet rotting ballpark in desperate need of a face lift
2001 Red Sox: Fenway
2009 Cubs: Wrigley

Affliction: Impending sale with hiccups
2001 Red Sox: Sale to John Henry’s group at a not-quite-highest bid and the ensuing Commonwealth of Massachusetts inquiry on the trust’s fiduciary duty to get maximum price
2009 Cubs: Possible Cubs bankruptcy to expedite sale to Ricketts group

Solution: New leadership with keen eye on financial markets
2002 Red Sox: John Henry, a longtime commodity trading adviser
2010 Cubs (projected): Tom Ricketts of Ameritrade and Incapital

Based on this admittedly highly superficial yet convincing evidence, the stars have re-aligned in 2009 in a similar pattern to 2001. Knowing what we know about that brutal Red Sox season (regardless of how many days Dan Duquette said the Sox were in first place) and the following years, several conditions must ring true for the Cubs to win a World Series:
· The sale can’t go through soon enough. This organization needs a thorough housecleaning of all that is previous ownership – not for change’s sake alone (after all, there was an ownership ticket-scalping fracas in 1908, too…how’d that work out for ya?), but so the new group can develop, articulate and execute their plan with efficiency and purity.
· Strong chance that when the Cubs win the World Series, Lou Piniella isn’t their manager. Maybe a calmer, less impulsive voice with a keener eye towards statistics and in-depth analysis. Perhaps a former manager with thickened skin from an unfortunate and untenable situation (Manny Acta, anyone?)
· A new GM is a safe bet. Like Duquette with Pedro, Hendry made some good moves during his tenure (Aramis Ramirez, Derrek Lee) but others have been questionable (Jacque Jones, Soriano). The farm system isn’t the greatest in the world, either. Still, new bosses bring their own people in. May I suggest a youthful voice unencumbered by tradition and old methods? Maybe someone from Sox baseball operations (Ben Cherrington, Jed Hoyer or Mike Hazen are names that come to mind).

· The Sox reached the Promised Land in three years after the sale…with a little help from Yankee Lobster (I’ll explain one of these days). Provided the sale goes through by the offseason, that gets us to 2012. There’s the Cubdom mystique of the year 2014, but why wait two extra years?
· Enough of the friggin' goats already!

And another thing...when it finally happens, don't sign the guy that made the last out of the World Series against you.

Welcome to The Blog of the Flying Taco

Well, there's the Rime of the Ancient Mariner, so why not the Blog of the Flying Taco?

Welcome and thanks for taking the time to read this, even though most of us experience serious information overload quite frequently. I live just outside of Boston and have extensive interest in the investment management and financial services industry. I may about the markets and investing/trading (disclaimer: I'm not a registered investment adviser, nor do I play one on TV, so no recommendations here; more like observations and insight). But it doesn't end there, by any means!

Brewing & beer
I am a nascent homebrewer (Flying Taco is the working name of my brewing exploits...Flying Taco Brewventures, to be exact). Some, including my Beautiful Bride, may call me a beer obsessive, as I enjoy trying beer from all over the world and of many different styles - so I'll definitely write about beer quite a bit.

More "consumables"
Food, wine...that too! Really anything in the "gastronomic arts" is on the table. I enjoy cooking even though I'm an absolute manic and stressed slob in the kitchen. Really the only thing I haven't managed to splatter all across our kitchen is homemade ice cream. Thankfully our CuisinArt ice cream maker has a very deep bowl to save us all from that indignity.

Sports
I enjoy the hell out of sports. As far as spectator sports go, baseball, hockey (my favorite live sport to watch)...football and basketball, too...and NASCAR. Hey, I even catch rugby on Setanta every once in a while, though not often enough. I don't just sit on the couch and watch 'em on TV, though, I participate too. I bike frequently and enjoyed playing soccer until I left my ACL on the field last June, but hopefully I'll start that up again in limited duty soon. Racquetball is something I must get back into very soon. Baseball, softball, too. I'm a fan of just about all of the Boston pro teams (first and foremost the Red Sox and Bruins). As a former Buffalo resident I continue to suffer alongside the Bills and Sabres, too, and still have solid Chicago ties to the Cubs, da Bearsz and the Hawks. Especially the Cubs, despite what a mess they are.

Music
One of the most useful gifts I ever received was my first iPod from my Beautiful Bride. Wouldn't have bought one on my own, but now I'm lost without it. Once I loaded it up I realized that I had collected a whole lot of music that was all over the place. From my Buffalo days I had a lot of Canadian indie stuff from listening to CFNY 102.1/The Edge in Toronto. Nine Inch Nails, Grateful Dead, southern fried, jazz, classical (Mom's influence as a professional flutist (flautist?) with a couple of Russian ballet companies in the 1960s when she lived in the City), new wave, techno, even some country in there. I've lately been on a big Canadian indie kick; we've caught quite a few Ron Hawkins (formerly with The Lowest of the Low) gigs lately with more coming soon. Also, our son is 5 and he's turning into a Deadhead. His favorite Dead tune is "Sugaree." It's amazing what XM 57 (Sirius 32) in the car has done for child development, apparently.

Many thanks to y'all for stopping by, and enjoy!

Thanks again,

Larry